Lidar corridor screen · I-495, Hopkinton–Bellingham

Fifty-four parcels left.
Fourteen pass the first screen.

The first three studies each went deep on a single site. This one asks the question that comes before that: which sites are even worth the trouble? I pulled every tax parcel within 1.5 km of a 20 km stretch of I-495, which covers nine towns and 49,986 parcels, kept the vacant ones over ten acres, and ran all of them through the same terrain screen. Fifty-four made it that far, and fourteen made it through.

By the numbers

What the screen actually found

14 of 54 vacant 10+ acre parcels fit one of the two conceptual pads under the stated terrain and mapped-buffer settings. The other forty did not pass this first screen.
49,986
tax parcels examined across nine towns
20 km
of I-495, Hopkinton through Bellingham
54
vacant or forest parcels of 10+ acres
$1.94/SF
lowest modeled earthwork per pad SF, 87 ac in Franklin
The map

The ground that ranked them

This is the surface the whole screen runs on, the 2021 MassGIS bare-earth hillshade, showing all fifty-four parcels with the fourteen that passed in green and the forty that did not in brown. Drag the line to compare current aerial imagery against the lidar, and click a parcel, a ranking card or a brown site to stand on that terrain.

2021 lidar hillshade of the I-495 corridor with all 54 screened parcels
AERIAL IMAGERY
2021 LIDAR HILLSHADE

All 54 screened parcels on 2021 lidar hillshade. Green passed; brown did not.

MassGIS 2021 half-meter bare-earth lidar shaded relief, the public surface used for this screen, with MassGIS Level 3 parcel outlines. Aerial imagery is Esri World Imagery, shown for orientation only. "No fit" is only a finding about these two pad sizes and the stated wetland and slope screens.
Corridor map of remaining vacant parcels
The same screen at corridor scale. Labels mark the five cheapest pads and dots are the other nine viable parcels. Extending the search south changed the picture, because the rolling Hopkinton end is where dirt costs the most, and the top five all sit south of Milford.
The ranking

The strongest five, then the full screen

Every parcel got the same treatment: find the best possible pad position inside it (two pad sizes tried), grade it to balance, apply the same illustrative $20/yd³ basis. "Constrained" is the share of the parcel inside wetland buffers, stream setbacks, or slopes over 15%. Pad sizes are rounded; the $/SF column divides by each pad's exact area. Click a card or any row to open that parcel on the lidar map.

2021 lidar hillshade of West Central Street, Franklin
01

West Central St

Franklin · 87.1 acres

$1.94 / pad SF7.4-acre pad · 31,047 yd³ modeled
2021 lidar hillshade of 23 R Tulip Way, Medway
02

23 R Tulip Way

Medway · 24.7 acres

$2.24 / pad SF7.4-acre pad · 35,803 yd³ modeled
2021 lidar hillshade of High Street, Bellingham
03

High St

Bellingham · 33.7 acres

$3.16 / pad SF7.4-acre pad · 50,468 yd³ modeled
2021 lidar hillshade of Hartford Avenue, Bellingham
04

Hartford Ave

Bellingham · 20.8 acres

$3.58 / pad SF7.4-acre pad · 57,217 yd³ modeled
2021 lidar hillshade of 4 Technology Drive, Milford
05

4 Technology Dr

Milford · 18.5 acres

$3.86 / pad SF7.4-acre pad · 61,756 yd³ modeled
View all 54 screened parcels
Full public-data screen. “No fit” only describes these pad sizes and stated assumptions.
#ParcelTownAcresMapped constraintsBest conceptual padModeled earthwork / pad SF (earthwork only)
10 West Central StFranklin87.159%7.4 ac pad · 31,047 yd³ ≈ $0.62M$1.94
223 R Tulip WayMedway24.746%7.4 ac pad · 35,803 yd³ ≈ $0.72M$2.24
30 High StBellingham33.761%7.4 ac pad · 50,468 yd³ ≈ $1.01M$3.16
40 Hartford AvBellingham20.853%7.4 ac pad · 57,217 yd³ ≈ $1.14M$3.58
54 Technology DrMilford18.526%7.4 ac pad · 61,756 yd³ ≈ $1.24M$3.86
60 High StBellingham47.829%16.3 ac pad · 144,167 yd³ ≈ $2.88M$4.06
70 Hixon StBellingham32.139%7.4 ac pad · 67,733 yd³ ≈ $1.35M$4.24
8Maple StMilford12.522%7.4 ac pad · 81,825 yd³ ≈ $1.64M$5.12
9East Main StMilford119.276%7.4 ac pad · 93,991 yd³ ≈ $1.88M$5.88
100 Pine Island RoadHopkinton110.245%16.3 ac pad · 233,019 yd³ ≈ $4.66M$6.56
110 Farm StBellingham16.38%7.4 ac pad · 110,234 yd³ ≈ $2.20M$6.90
120 Lumber StreetHopkinton16.532%7.4 ac pad · 129,444 yd³ ≈ $2.59M$8.10
13306 Maple StBellingham11.524%7.4 ac pad · 141,798 yd³ ≈ $2.84M$8.87
140 Fisher StHolliston17.347%7.4 ac pad · 175,079 yd³ ≈ $3.50M$10.95
·Off Lumber StreetHopkinton11.750%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Lumber StreetHopkinton20.476%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·253 Lumber StreetHopkinton14.371%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Granite StreetHopkinton29.371%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 South StHolliston10.438%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·Rear Purchase StMilford12.686%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·Silver Hill RdMilford34.685%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·Rear Haven StMilford15.344%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·400 Deer StMilford25.057%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·10 Country WayHopkinton10.452%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·80 Deer StMilford13.399%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·Rear Cedar StMilford11.584%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·Rear Cedar StMilford10.424%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·I 495Milford18.5100%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·Maple StMilford24.074%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·Off Medway RdMilford12.3100%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Hartford AvBellingham24.164%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·Downey StreetHopkinton11.927%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Hartford AvBellingham44.572%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·187 Farm StBellingham11.995%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 North Main StBellingham31.690%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Maple StBellingham106.169%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Maple StBellingham10.235%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Oak StBellingham12.146%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·36 R Alder StMedway35.6100%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Oak GroveMedway13.044%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·26 Alder StMedway11.382%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 R Stone End RdMedway25.384%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Mine BrookFranklin15.051%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Mine BrookFranklin23.064%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Old Town RoadHopkinton13.261%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·300 Fisher StFranklin18.382%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 King StFranklin24.451%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·555 King StFranklin12.655%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Summer StFranklin10.433%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Uncas PondFranklin15.614%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Lumber StreetHopkinton27.874%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 Lumber StreetHopkinton27.573%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·0 West Main StreetHopkinton10.162%no contiguous pad fits the screens
·Off Teresa RoadHopkinton40.381%no contiguous pad fits the screens

This column is modeled earthwork only. The cross-study table on the home page adds midpoint clearing to the same kind of figure, so the two are close but not the same measure.

Put in money rather than rate, the fourteen that passed run from $0.62M to $3.50M of modeled earthwork for the same 7.4-acre pad, a spread of about $2.88M between the cheapest and the dearest place to put an identical building. That spread is the argument for screening before anyone commissions a survey. A few things stand out beyond it. The 87-acre Franklin parcel at $1.94/SF is a quarter the modeled earthwork cost of anything in Hopkinton. Only two parcels can fit the full 16.3-acre warehouse pad, those being 48 acres on High Street in Bellingham at $4.06/SF and Pine Island Road in Hopkinton at $6.56/SF, while everything else maxes out at the 7.4-acre size. The forty brown rows are not a finding that the land is worthless. They simply did not fit these two pad sizes under this screen, and a smaller or differently shaped concept may produce another result.

The same method at corridor scale

What one highway is worth screening

This screen covered 20 km of I-495, which runs 195.6 km in Massachusetts, so the studied stretch is about a tenth of the highway. At the rate found here, 54 candidate parcels and 14 that pass, the whole of I-495 would hold on the order of 530 candidates and 140 passing, or roughly one viable site every 1.4 km of corridor.

Treat that as arithmetic rather than a survey. The studied stretch was chosen because it is where industrial development actually happens, and the northern and southern ends of I-495 run through different land use, so the rate almost certainly does not hold evenly along the whole road. The useful part is not the estimate. It is that the screen which produced it ran on free public data, and pointing it at another corridor is a day of work rather than a survey contract.

What a table cell can't show

Four parcels that did not pass

The brown rows are easier to believe once you see the ground. Some are almost entirely steep or inside mapped buffers; some sit against I-495. One Franklin parcel is only 14% constrained on paper and still could not fit a contiguous 7.4-acre pad.

2021 lidar hillshade of 80 Deer Street in Milford

80 Deer St, Milford

13.3 acres, 99% mapped constraints. Almost none of the parcel is outside steep ground and wetland/stream buffers.

2021 lidar hillshade of an I-495 remnant parcel in Milford

I-495 remnant, Milford

18.5 acres, 100% constrained. Vacant on the roll; the lidar is highway, slope, and leftover scraps.

2021 lidar hillshade of 36 R Alder Street in Medway

36 R Alder St, Medway

100% constrained in the screen. Hummocky ground and a highway embankment eat the pad window.

2021 lidar hillshade of the Uncas Pond parcel in Franklin

Uncas Pond, Franklin

Only 14% mapped constraints, and still no contiguous 7.4-acre pad. Shape and local relief matter as much as the percentage.

Method & limits

How the screen works

  1. Parcels. MassGIS L3 tax parcels joined to assessor records for the corridor towns. The screen kept parcels of 10 acres or more, classified vacant, forest or developable land, carrying under $50k of building value and lying within 1.5 km of the MassDOT I-495 centerline. The nine towns are Hopkinton, Holliston, Milford, Hopedale, Upton, Mendon, Medway, Bellingham and Franklin.
  2. Terrain. The state's 2021 bare-earth lidar DEM, resampled to 1 m. Across Studies 01 to 03 my point-cloud models and the state's DEM, derived from the same flights, differed by 2.0 to 7.6 cm RMSE, which supports processing consistency rather than independent field verification. Wetlands and streams come from DEP layers with 100 ft and 200 ft screening buffers.
  3. The pad search. The same optimizer as Study 03, run inside every parcel. Every possible pad position is tested, and the largest pad is kept where at least 70% of the window passes the terrain and mapped-buffer screen and 95% sits inside the parcel.
  4. What a screen doesn't do. There are no canopy metrics here, no wetness-discrepancy or rock screens, no access routes and no zoning. Those belong to the per-parcel study, run on whichever of these parcels matters to you. Costs use the same $20/yd³ basis and the same caveats as the other studies.

Scope: a public-data demonstration. "Pass" means passing the stated terrain and mapped-buffer screen, not approved, permitted or confirmed buildable. This does not review current title, ownership, zoning, frontage, legal access, utilities, field wetlands, soils, endangered species, cultural resources, or permitting. A shortlist this small is what makes a deeper study practical for the parcels that matter. Scripts and pipeline files are available on request. Read the full assumptions, sources and limitations.